Confirmation bias is the tendency to favour information that supports what you already believe while giving less attention to information that challenges it.
It can be very industrious. Once the conclusion is chosen, almost everything becomes useful evidence.
They replied late. Naturally, you don’t matter.
But yesterday they made time for you. Last week they followed through. Today they said they were busy.
Those facts may or may not change your judgement. The question is whether they are allowed into it.
The reverse can happen too. You want to trust someone, so each affectionate moment counts heavily while repeated disappointments are explained away. Bias isn’t confined to pessimism.
Looking again doesn’t require abandoning your experience. It asks for an account sturdy enough to include information you didn’t go looking for.
Evidence explores what actually supports a claim. Discernment asks how to weigh different details without demanding that every account be equally convincing.
Noba’s Judgment and Decision Making examines biases and shortcuts in judgement. It is especially relevant to the moment when "I knew it" arrives before you’ve looked at the whole situation.